FYI
Nawaf Y. Husein
Faculty Member
Msc, CRP , CLBB
Saudi Training Society Member
Institute of Banking
Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency ( SAMA)
P.O.Box : 10820 Riyadh 11443 Saudi Arabia
Tel : + 966 1 463 3000 Ext. 3825
Fax: + 966 1 466 2368
Mobile : + 966 55 48 44 828
SKYPE : abuhejleh2
Dear All,
Saudi Arabia's government spending and domestic consumption of oil are growing while the Kingdom's overall oil production growth is flat. We thought it was time to do a special report that looks at this potentially worrisome combination of trends. Several key questions have been on our minds: What is the " breakeven" price for Saudi oil going out 20 years? How long will the current run of budget surpluses last? What kind of cushion in terms of foreign assets and debt capacity does the Kingdom enjoy, and for how long? How much oil will Saudi Arabia be consuming domestically, and what will be left for export by 2030? What are the game changers in the global oil market that could have dramatic impact on Saudi Arabia?
In the attached report, "Saudi Arabia's coming oil and fiscal challenge," we address these questions and others. We look at how long the current happy oil and budgetary situation for the Kingdom is likely to last and what the Kingdom is likely to face should it remain on the current path of domestic oil consumption and spending growth.
Our Head of Research, Paul Gamble, and I wrote the report. We hope you find it useful. Feel free to direct comments or questions to either of us.
Best regards,
Brad Bourland, CFA
Chief Economist and Managing Director, Proprietary Investment
Jadwa Investment
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