Nawaf Y. Husein
Faculty Member
Msc, CRP , CLBB
Saudi Training Society Member
Institute of Banking
Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency ( SAMA)
P.O.Box : 10820 Riyadh 11443 Saudi Arabia
Tel : + 966 1 463 3000 Ext. 3825
Fax: + 966 1 466 2368
Mobile : + 966 55 48 44 828
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/nawaf-abu-hejleh/28/342/64a
SKYPE : abuhejleh2
Dear Readers,
Executive Summary
· Oil prices seem overstretched, though the market needs some trigger to release a correction. Prices are expected to weaken from the current levels, as the market fundamentals do not support these levels, but are unlikely to fall below the USD100's level.
· The US dollar's gain during the Chinese lunar New Year holiday helped set a slightly weaker midpoint for the CNY, counteracting the effect of Japan's new policy announcement.
· Overall, gold had been outperformed by every other precious/base metal so far this year. It seems the reduced inflationary pressures across the globe had impacted the demand for the yellow metal as an inflation hedge.
· Given the direct link between the Saudi and US economies, we expect the current wait and see approach of Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency to continue into the foreseeable future.
· Individual Saudi investors still represent the bulk of traders but CMA is expected to remedy and stabilize the situation by allowing foreigners to invest through channels other than equity swaps and equity traded funds.
· The focus towards longer credit maturities has been apparent by local banks since May 2012 when growth rates started diverging.
· China remains the crucial trading partner and it appears that the slight recovery in its manufacturing activity has left its imprints on the trade balance sheet.
Best regards,
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